What Rate Cuts Can Be Expected
The US Fed has not exactly been forthcoming in its rate cuts; rather, it lowered rates very reluctantly in 2007. It has given only what the currency markets have already priced in. The basic reason for their hesitation is the desire to contain inflation ? the very same concern that weighs heavily on all other central banks in the world. The Fed wants to make certain inflation remains under control. Doing that has been more difficult because of the high energy prices coupled with the weaker dollar. Thankfully, indications of energy prices reaching $100 per barrel are no longer in circulation.
The market expects the Fed to further ease interest rates another 25 to 50bp lower; however, this is not the only option. They may want to further explore their other options, including the Term Auction Facility they introduced in December. But these options, including a cut in the discount rate, are limited especially since LIBOR rates have remained at high levels. Even as late as December, Treasuries posted one-day increases that were the highest seen in the last three years.
Who Else Might Make A Play
In the final two months of...
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