Earning Season is always volatile to stock prices. Traders jerk in and out depending on the outcome of the report. For example, Texas Instrument (TXN) reported that its third quarter earning of 2005 rising 12% year over year. And yet, TXN fell after hour due to weak forecast. The game now is the expectation game. If the company beats, share price normally rise. If it doesn’t, share price plunge.
There are ways to beat the expectation game and reduce volatility to your portfolio. You do not have to wait for the press release and wait nervously whether your company beat or miss expectation. One way is to buy company with a modest expectation. The definition of modest varies among individuals but to me, modest expectation has a forward P/E ratio of less than 10. What happens when a company with modest expectation miss expectation? While, share price may get clobbered, I don’t think it will move much. Why? Because P/E of 10 already incorporates a 0% EPS growth. Even if EPS stays constant for the next ten years, company with P/E of 10 will return its shareholder roughly 10% a year.
Another way is to pick company that has predictable cash flow and dividend...
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