As the Dow approaches a new all-time high (the record close was 11,722.98), now would be a good time to take a break from the financial news found on your televisions, in your newspapers, (and yes) even on your computers.
A new high is an empty headline. I’m not writing to tell you that; you already know that. What you may not fully appreciate is just how arbitrary an index the Dow Jones Industrial Average really is.
Most notably, it’s no longer very industrial. Only about one of every three stocks in the Dow is involved in what might be considered an old-line industrial (heavy manufacturing, extraction, etc.) business. A lot of the Dow components are involved in totally different businesses such as consumer products, health care, and technology. For the most part, these businesses are usually a lot less tangible. The businesses are asset-light; the future prospects are largely company specific.
Today, the extent to which the common stocks of the thirty companies move together may have more to do with their shared classification as “Dow” stocks than with the future prospects of the underlying businesses.
On April 8, 2004 some...