Deliberations over the UN sanctions against North Korea or Iran for their nuclear programs bring to memory the League of Nations talk before the WWII. Was German refusal to pay reparations a casus belli? Re-militarization of Rhineland? Extensive military production? No single such issue is a casus belli. Politicians bogged down in details dont see the grand picture of the imminent war. Then and now.
The West demonstrated its impotence in the face of nuclear proliferation. China got nuclear weapons with impunity. Pakistan received a minor slap of sanctions. North Korean rulers sagged under the weight of sanctions: the Japanese refused to sell them melons. Sanctions against Iran would hardly include oil, and even so the mullahs can do without the oil for some time; yet rising price of oil will be blamed on the sanctions.
Ahmadinejad needs a rhetorical, not battlefield enemy. Iran will use the bomb to gain dominance in the Muslim world. That spells a development of the Shiite axis, huge discontent in the Arab world, and the arms race. Arab states will rush to develop nuclear weapons to be on par with Iran. The Arabs know that Iran wont attack Israel with nuclear...
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