Generally speaking, being in first place on Memorial Day is a good sign of things to come. Memorial Day typically marks the one-third mark for the Major League Baseball season, and by this point you have a pretty good idea of which teams are going to be in the running and which teams are dead and buried.
For instance, its fairly common knowledge on May 29 that the Royals arent going to be challenging for the AL Central crown at 11-37, 22 1/2 games behind the 35-16 Tigers. Of course, we probably knew that the Royals wouldnt be contenders entering the season anyway, but now were certain of it.
At the same time, there arent many people outside of the Dallas-Fort Worth region who expected the Rangers to be in first place come Memorial Day, and Id be willing to bet that even some of the more loyal Rangers fans would have to be honest with themselves before claiming that they saw it coming.
How good of an indicator of future success is being in first place on Memorial Day? Since 1990 (excluding the strike year of 1994), the 82 division leaders on the last Monday in May have gone on to hold their leads and win their divisions 47 times. Thats a 57% rate.
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