Football returned to gridirons, TV screens and sports books recently, and while the game surely was a welcome sight for bored eyes, bulging wallets, beer distributors and casino spread sheets, there also is a widely held perception that when it comes to NFL betting, gamblers hold an edge over bookmakers early in the season.
Roxy Roxborough, the founder of Las Vegas Sports Consultants and the man who revolutionized sports wagering by using mathematical formulas and computer models to help compute accurate odds, disagrees with that notion.
“For years it’s been said that oddsmakers are more vulnerable earlier in the year because the teams are new, but I don’t buy it,” said Roxborough, now retired. “Oddsmakers work with the same information as the bettors. Sometimes it’s just a matter of interpretation. In the case of NFL betting, you often have teams with new coaches and–because of trades, free agency or injuries–new quarterbacks. You don’t learn a lot in the exhibition season and that’s basically because teams try to limit the playing time of their significant players because they’re worried about...