Red Zone Conversion percentage is one of those basic-box score stats that has been around for so long, it’s easy to overlook it in today’s 12-15 page NFL Gamebooks. It’s a deceptively simple, yet powerful statistic–teams that consistently convert Red Zone drives into touchdowns are the same teams that win games, and cover spreads. Teams with strong rushing attacks and tall, athletic receivers usually do well in the Red Zone, while teams that have trouble pounding the ball up the middle and don’t have the corners of the end-zone staked out are doomed to fail.
The fact that a high RZC% has a direct correlation with both SU and ATS wins should come as no surprise to even the casual fan. What is more interesting; however, is that RZC% also serves as an excellent tool in the prediction of future outcomes when used appropriately.
The power of RZC% as a handicapping tool truly becomes apparent when we compare how well one team has performed in the Red Zone while on offense, season-to-date, against the percentage that their upcoming opponent has surrendered scores in the Red Zone over the same time period. I actually analyze match-ups of...
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