There is little doubt that rushing and passing stats are the predominant tool of choice for handicappers looking to evaluate team strength and the accuracy of the point spread for any given game. My analysis is no different in some respects–many of my systems rely on fundamental ratings such as ROF and PDE that use yards-per-play stats to reveal situations that have been profitable versus the line.
What gets lost in all the attention directed to how well teams rush and pass the ball; however, is the fact that there are other equally important aspects of team play which can be just as predictive in nature as some of the more commonly used measurements of team skill.
One such area that frequently flies under the radar of handicappers involves statistics related to team penalties and as we will explore here, certain types of penalties can be a particularly powerful handicapping tool in the right situations.
I have always found penalties to be an intriguing aspect of the NFL game and their effect is undeniable–who hasn’t felt the sting of a mistimed penalty that suddenly breathes new life into a drive that seemed to be over just moments before...
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